Monthly Summary - November 2015

   Very unsettled, very wet, often windy, occasionally stormy and exceptionally mild and dull throughout the month apart from one very brief wintry spell 20th-23rd.

   November was a terrible month and even its mildness was of no consolation as the sun went virtually unseen, rain fell frequently and heavily, gales were recorded on two days with gusts of wind exceeding 50 mph recorded on five days.

   MSLP of 1010.4 Mb was -3.3 Mb below the local average for November with low pressure very much to the fore as a rapid succession of frontal systems arrived off the Atlantic. Some of those systems were significant enough to be named by the Met' Office and the month saw some disruption with roads flooded and trees brought down.

   Overall a mean minimum of 5.31°c and a mean maximum of 10.74°c saw the temperature 2.1°c above the 1981-2010 average, making it the warmest November since 2011 and the third warmest on record. The highest maximum temperature recorded was 16.8°c (2nd), the lowest minimum -3.9°c (22nd).

   Rainfall of 231.5 mm (Crosby Ravensworth School 279.9 mm   -   that margin between the two is the most marked of the year and some difference for just the 0.7 miles that separates the two sites!) made it the wettest November since 2009 (the 2nd wettest of the 9 recorded by myself) and here at Maulds Meaburn was 177% of average for 2007-14. Locally rainfall was typically over 200% of average.

   At the Met' Office site at Newton Rigg, 212.4 mm (212.2%) made it the wettest November since 2009 and in a series back to 1914 this makes it the 3rd wettest in that time (1 year of missing data). A mean temperature of 7.95°c is the warmest since 2011 and a series back to 1953 is the 3rd warmest.

   Figures from the Environment Agency’s rainfall sites were, (figure in brackets being the monthly average for 1961-90)   ‘Data kindly provided by the Hydrometry and Telemetry team of the Environment Agency (Penrith)’:

   Kirkby Thore 153.2 mm (80.9 mm)

   Brothers Water 646.1 mm (271 mm)

   Nunwick Hall 167.4 mm (79.5 mm) and

   886.8 mm at Seathwaite Farm (Borrowdale - 374 mm [average for 1981-2010]) - see + below.



   Here at Maulds Meaburn, autumn 2015 with 338.1 mm of rain (Crosby Ravensworth 386.9 mm) has been the wettest since 2012 and is the both the 5th wettest and driest of the nine now recorded, ie, bang in the middle. That 338.1 mm represented 98.7 % of the rainfall for those 8 previous autumns, with the relative dryness of both September and October almost offset by the wet November.

   A mean temperature of 9.57°c is the coldest since 2013 and is both the fourth coldest and warmest of the seven autumns now recorded. That 9.57°c makes the autumn of 2015 some 0.15°c warmer than the average of those previous six and it was only the exceptional mildness of November that ensured a warmer than average autumn.

   At Newton Rigg rainfall totalled 292.7 mm and had a mean temperature of 9.48°c. In comparison to the 1981-2010 averages this represented 103.3 % of autumn rainfall and it was 0.4°c warmer than average.

   This makes the autumn of 2015 the 43rd wettest in a series back to 1914 (4yrs of missing data) and the 15th warmest in a series back to 1953.



  1st - 3rd    The month opened quietly as high pressure (HP) situated over eastern Europe extended west over the UK. Both the 1st and 2nd were remarkably warm in a light south-southwesterly wind with each seeing some sunshine, but becoming misty at night.

   It was remarkably warm overnight into the 1st at 11.5°c, (then a new highest minimum temperature record for November at this site) followed by a maximum of 16.6°c, which would be a new high temperature record for November at this site. However, the 2nd saw more in the way of sun and it peaked even higher at 16.8°c (62.2°f) to take the record for itself.

   A little sun at first on the 3rd was replaced by a murky gloom ahead of rain in the late evening.


  4th - 19th    Now the month really took a turn for the worse. Low pressure systems arriving off the Atlantic came thick and fast, one replacing the other, with significant falls of rain coupled with windy conditions - November was suddenly looking grim and just a little menacing!

   During the 4-7th rainfall totals were only moderate, with the majority of the rain on each day falling in the mornings, but the skies were persistently gloomy and then it got worse! Come the 7th, HP over the continent was holding back any Atlantic frontal systems, pushing one such system north out of Biscay. This then became slow moving over the UK on the 8th and its waving frontal system also became re-energised along its length resulting in copious amounts of rain - see synoptic chart below. The rain fell heavily, especially during the afternoon with the wind gusting to 47 Mph, the final total of 40.4 mm was also topped up by more rain overnight into the 9th. This all made for the 8th being the ninth wettest day in my records.

           Mid-day 8th -   the 'wave' along the front at which it became re-energised is ringed in red   


   And it only relented slightly. A new frontal system connected to LP south of Greenland brought 13.5 mm of rain on the 9th. Those fronts were slow to clear on the 10th, becoming static over the UK as their progress was blocked by the HP over France and only cleared south-east on the 11th.

   The rain was steady as opposed to heavy, but the 12th now brought the first 'storm' of the season and which for the first time was to be given a name, 'Abigail', by the Met' Office.

   Abigail (see chart below) tended to avoid us, staying out to the west of Eire and tracking north-east, but after a morning of sunny spells the rain and wind arrived late afternoon. The wind gusted to 55 mph and we saw 16.7 mm of rain which was heaviest around tea-time, but which had stopped by mid-evening.

            Mid-day 12th -  Abigail, the first 'storm' of the season, despite gusts to 55 mph + 16.7 mm, we missed the worst


   The forecast for the weekend of the 14-15th made grim reading with heavy rain and winds predicted, but it turned out not as bad as expected, although there were some impressive rainfall totals in the Lake District, Seathwaite Farm (Borrowdale) recording a more than impressive 207.8 mm (8.18 in) on the 14th.

   + Indeed Seathwaite then saw 64.0 mm on the 15th to give a two day total of 271.8 mm, which was on top of 249.0 mm that fell on the 8-10th (74.0 mm - 85.8 mm - 89.2 mm respectively). The total fall for just these five days was 520.8 mm (20.5 in) which is more than the mean annual rainfall for Shoeburyness in Essex!!

   The frontal system arriving off the Atlantic was 'ex-hurricane Kate', (see synoptic chart below) which was slow moving with a strong and moist south-westerly flow and a little warm tropical air included. When it reached the UK and was caused to rise upwards by the Lake District's mountains the high rainfall totals followed. However, here at Maulds Meaburn just 21.0 mm of rain was recorded on the 14th with a further 11.6 mm on the 15th.

   However, as 'Kate' moved away overnight 15-16th we were exposed to gales on its southern flank and the wind that had picked up during the evening of the 15th, peaked just after midnight with a gust of 63 Mph and a with a 10 minute mean wind speed of 39 mph, a gale was recorded.


(Left) Mid-day 14th                                                                                (Right) Mid-day 15th   

Ex-Hurricane 'Kate', was slow moving over the UK, its tropical moisture laden air forced upwards by the mountains and hence depositing plenty of rain.



   Another Met' office named storm, 'Barney' arrived on the 17th, but which affected more southern counties of the UK than ourselves, however, we had a spell of heavy rain in the afternoon to give 12.8 mm. This was followed on the 18th with yet another new frontal system arriving that brought spells of heavy rain, totalling 20.4 mm.


  20th - 22nd    And then it suddenly, but briefly, turned cold. HP in the Atlantic and LP over Finland dragged down cold Arctic winds, with those winds veering westerly, through to northerly. The first snow of the season on Cross Fell came on the 20th and then overnight into the 21st an occlusion that had persistently loitered out to the north-east, moved south. This brought a light fall of snow in the early hours of the 21st that gave a thin cover which by sunrise had iced over.

   That cover of snow wasn't deep enough to be classified as a 'Day of Lying Snow', but it still transformed the scene and the day would be bitter cold and easily the month's coldest day at just 1.9°c (35.4°f), although we did get to see the sun. There were a few more flurries of snow at night, but as the 'Azores HP' was ridging north the skies cleared and the month's coldest temperature of -3.9°c (25°f) came overnight 21st/22nd. That ridge of HP was still strong enough for a deep frost of -3.1°c overnight into the 23rd before more frontal systems would arrive off the Atlantic and herald unsettled conditions through to the month's end.


  Midnight 20th-21st -  The cold Arctic Maritime airmass, the occluded fronts moved south bringing the snow overnight   


  23rd - 30th    The month steadily reverted to type, not too wet or windy during the 24-26th, but from the 27th it became lousy!

   HP anchored in the mid Atlantic caused any frontal systems to go over its top and arrive with a west-north-westerly breeze and hence it still felt fresh, but later in the period that HP would play a small part in causing a 'squeeze' on the pressure gradient. The weekend of 28-29th was particularly grim with a quick succession of deep areas of LP pushing frontal systems over the UK. The Saturday saw moderate rain all day, totalling 15.7 mm, but whilst the 29th only saw 9.0 mm it was accompanied by the month's second gale with winds peaking mid morning and gusting to 59 Mph and then with a spell of heavy rain either side of lunch.

   The month then ended on a cold and murky note with rain overnight into the 1st making the month the 5th wettest of any month yet recorded at this site.


Nov' Rainfall amounts %                                                                     Nov' Temp' Anomaly   



   Rainfall totalled 231.5 mm for the month, with rain recorded on 27 days of which 22 were 'Wet days' (1.0mm +).

   The Mean Temperature for the month was 8.03°c      --      The Mean Max' was   10.74°c     --      The Mean Min'   5.31°c.

   We had 3 Air Frosts in the month (year 46)                --      Grass frosts totalled 6 (year 108).

   The 1 foot soil temp ranged from a low of 6.4°c on the 23rd-24th        to      a high of 11.4°c on the 11th     --      with a monthly mean of 9.2°c

   The 1 meter soil temp ranged from a low of 8.6°c on the 30th      to      a high of 10.8°c on the 3rd, 8th and 12-13th     --     with a monthly mean of 10.1°c



   * November 2015 rainfall was 177% of the November average for 2007 - 2014

   * November 2015 was 2.11°c warmer than the November average for 2009 - 2014 and 2.1°c warmer than the local long term average 1981-2010

                                  * 2015    To Date                   TEMP      8.88°c         --         RAIN   1091.9 mm

* 2014 Jan - Nov TEMP    10.08°c -- RAIN   1250.9 mm

* 2013 Jan - Nov TEMP'     8.75°c -- RAIN    961.4 mm

* 2012 Jan - Nov TEMP'     8.74°c -- RAIN   1175.7 mm

* 2011 Jan - Nov TEMP'     9.60°c -- RAIN   1125.3 mm

* 2010 Jan - Nov TEMP'     8.29°c -- RAIN    678.6 mm

* 2009 Jan - Nov TEMP'     9.50°c -- RAIN   1171.5 mm

* 2008 Jan - Nov TEMP'     -- RAIN   1290.0 mm

This makes the Jan' to Nov' period of 2015 0.35°c colder than the average for 2009-14 and with 99.9% of rainfall for 2008-14


JANUARY 2010    FEBRUARY 2010    MARCH 2010    APRIL 2010    MAY 2010    JUNE 2010    JULY 2010    AUGUST 2010    SEPTEMBER 2010    OCTOBER 2010    NOVEMBER 2010    DECEMBER 2010   

JANUARY 2011    FEBRUARY 2011    MARCH 2011    APRIL 2011    MAY 2011    JUNE 2011    JULY 2011    AUGUST 2011    SEPTEMBER 2011    OCTOBER 2011    NOVEMBER 2011    DECEMBER 2011   

JANUARY 2012    FEBRUARY 2012    MARCH 2012    APRIL 2012    MAY 2012    JUNE 2012    JULY 2012    AUGUST 2012    SEPTEMBER 2012    OCTOBER 2012    NOVEMBER 2012    DECEMBER 2012    SUMMER 2012    REVIEW OF 2012   

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JANUARY 2014    FEBRUARY 2014    MARCH 2014    APRIL 2014    MAY 2014    JUNE 2014    JULY 2014    AUGUST 2014    SEPTEMBER 2014    OCTOBER 2014    NOVEMBER 2014    DECEMBER 2014    WINTER 2014    REVIEW OF 2014   

JANUARY 2015    FEBRUARY 2015    MARCH 2015    APRIL 2015    MAY 2015    JUNE 2015    JULY 2015    AUGUST 2015    SEPTEMBER 2015    OCTOBER 2015   

   © Darren Rogers 2015

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